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Will the 2012 Offseason Make the Marlins a Playoff Team?

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SABERMETRIC LOOK AT THE MARLINS OFFSEASON

WAR
Reyes: 5.8

Bell: 1.7
 Buehrle: 3.7
Zambrano: 0.7

LeBlanc: 0.2
Rowand: 0.9

NET WORTH: 14.0 Wins gained

Volstad: 0.1
Vazquez: 2.5
Hensley: -0.2
Lopez: -0.1
Net Worth: 2.3 Wins Lost

TOTAL: 11.7 Wins Gained

Now, some stuff will change.  Morrison and Stanton will get better so more wins will be gained that way and the defense is a little worse and some other deductions in WAR will happen, but as of 2011, if the Marlins had had these guys and lost the players they lost in the offseason they would have been about 84-78 or so, so it looks as if 85 or 86 wins are possible give or take some.  Now with four teams that’s not a playoff team but with 5 it very well could be.  I personally think the Marlins could do better than that but they need Johnson to be healthy and Zambrano to be good and not wild.  The Marlins have gotten a lot better for sure and these moves should make them better and should probably work out good.

A LOOK AT THE PLAYERS
Bell: He’s a good closer and some view him is overrated but I think he’s rated just fine.  He will get some saves this year but he may start a slower decline pretty soon and moving parks shouldn’t have a huge effect because I feel that Marlins Park will be more of a pitcher’s park, though not completely.   He’s a pretty good signing and it gives the Marlins a legit closer wand rounds out the Marlins bullpen and makes the team better.  He should have about a 1.5-sh WAR the next few years and he has a chance of having a really great year too, he’s a good signing.

Buehrle: He’s the perfect number three starter and though at the end of the deal he will be doing a bit worse-like 4.00 ERAs, this year he should do pretty good and this year be one of the league’s better number three starters.  This should be one of the better signings of the offseason and he should have a really good year and help the Marlins a lot, of of their best signings of the offseason

Reyes: They needed what he does.  They now have another all-star, who is younger and is fast and can play a pretty good shortstop.  His 2012 should be pretty close to his 2011 except with a lower batting average, but still a .300.  he’s the best signing and should help the most mostly because his talent is the best.  The Marlins will like this guy and he’s a special player worth what they signed him for
Zambrano: He has talent but he’s a big risk, he should easily improve on last year if he has the right attitude but the question is how much and I say not by too much considering his indicators have gotten lower each season and he’s starting to climb in age.  The thing is that he only has to be a five starter though and that he can be.  He could be an above average guy there at best and most ;likely should do his job, for this season.

Others: Rowand wll be a good fourth outfielder and LeBlanc has some talent for a few spot starts when needed and since both cost close to nothing, those are pretty good small pickups.

LOSES: Other than losing a few role players who weren’t even that good, the Marlins lost Vazquez, who is pretty good but they made up for him and more with Buehrle.

BOTTOM LINE: These moves make the Marlins a really good and tough team for 2012 and 2013 but after that they need to use their youth some because some of their signings will start declining.  They should be a playoff contender until then though, but it will be tough in this division.  I could see the Marlins winning as low as 84 games or as many as 94, but realistically it looks like 86-87 is a good number and without the moves they’d probably be about an 80 win team.  These moves could help them into the playoffs.  As for me, I say they’re still a but short but if they start hot they can stay hot or grab another bat in July and they could easily make the playoffs.  They are a good teams and because of these moves they are great

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  • http://Marlinsnation.com Roger sierra

    As you can see who the marlins signed I think they are a playoff kind of team with the people they have Been able to get Jose Reyes had best batting avg last season really good shortstop can get injured at times but people need to know he goes all out in stealing and making playes since we singed jose that moves Hanley to third if he is really commited to playing 3rd base he would make him and Jose a really good duo Hanley with his power if he really commits would make the marlins good defensively and Offensivly Omar infante which had a few slumps but can be good at times, if you can see we had Dan uggla which had like 30 something homeruns but way to many strikeouts was kind of a good idea for the marlins to get Omar but Omar could make good plays somewhat and can affective, Gaby Sanchez at first base which we dident get Albert or fielder we still have Gaby which might not sound good but he was and Allstar last year and you have seen the type of contact he had and power and defensive plays he made (moving on to outfield) let me start off with Logan Morrison as you see Logan Morrison was a really good player for a rookie had good power a good swing knows how to hit the ball which he is now into his second year he can be better I would see alot more from him and he was also a good switch from coghlan which was good but has Bering going into a slump for a while now, emilio has a bunch of speed and knows how to hit the ball since he had a 20 something game hitting streak and adding yoenis cespedes if we get him would be fenominal because we have seen the things this Cuban can do he also has speed and so much power with 33 homeruns and 99 RBIs on the Cuban national team pitching wise now josh Johnson amazing pitcher I mean amazing this will probly be his best season we’ve seen how he pitched with out Jose or great people around him with this new team healing arm we will see the damage he can do, mark buerle is a really good pitcher from the stats I’ve seen he’s good and with a relationship with Ozzie makes it even better, leblanc I don’t know much about sorry, anibal Sanchez did win aberration which I dident like cuz he was 8-9 but we’ve seen the type of pitches he has how close he is to no hitters if he’s calm relaxed while pitching there’s no way he won’t get a no hitter, Heath bell really I mean really good closer he’s old but knows how to finish a game and isn’t under pressure after one hit like Leo Nunez and he is better than Leo Nunez Carlos Zambrano everybody knows he’s a hot head but having Ozzie makes him a good fit since Ozzie knows how to talk to players like that and Carlos is good but was on a bad team when he’s on a team that has defense and knows how to defend he can ouch quite good for a 5th starter, I forgot about John buck, John buck is a good catcher he has power and knows how to catch some people wanted to bring pudge back which i would like having as a backup but Brett Hayes has shown us alot and I don’t want anything to happen to Brett, as you can see from all these names I really think the marlins are a playoff team and can compete with the phillies and possibly go to the world series

    • http://miamimarlinsnation.com Niktigs

      Brett makes a good backup catcher and I think he should stick. As far as in the playoffs anything can happen, but you have a better chance being strong in most, if not all aspects of the game and the Marlins are close to that, it’s just if they can make it in the playoffs in the NL East and maybe through the Wild Card teams.